🔥 We checked. Again. Still no bubble.

Exponential View · 1 month ago

An analysis tracking AI market conditions against five empirical bubble indicators from 300 years of investment history found continued boom conditions rather than bubble signs, with only one indicator in red despite dramatic increases in capex to $157.7 billion quarterly and sector revenues reaching $25 billion in Q1. The assessment noted that AI capex as a share of US GDP exceeded 1% for the first time, entering the amber zone, while revenue growth accelerated unexpectedly to doubling every 0.73 years rather than decelerating as predicted. If capex growth continues at current rates without revenue acceleration slowing significantly, economic strain could enter the red zone toward the end of 2027, though current trends suggest the sector remains in a sustainable expansion phase.