The SaaS debt trap
Fortune Stephen Messer
Opinion — commentary, not a factual news event.
SaaS incumbents have shifted capital toward shareholder buybacks and debt-fueled stock support while framing the move as an AI strategy, even as AI model “substrates” keep getting cheaper and stronger. Salesforce authorized a $50 billion share repurchase in February 2026 and then used debt to fund it, including a $25 billion senior notes issuance. The result is that valuation bounces are portrayed as AI progress while the underlying category risks a debt-driven downturn and buyers increasingly route around legacy front-end lock-in via AI agents.
Why it matters
Wall Street spent the week arguing about whether AI is slowing down. The other bubble is what the SaaS incumbents did when their multiples collapsed.
