Some ideas for what comes next, May 2026
Interconnects Nathan Lambert
Open-weight models have not yet reached the agentic capability level demonstrated by Claude's Opus 4.5 in December 2025, with the gap likely persisting for 12+ months despite steady benchmark improvements. Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash lacks a meaningful competitor to Claude Code and Codex, suggesting Chinese labs face similar resource constraints and will specialize in automated enterprise agents rather than competing directly with U.S. frontier models. Existing power structures including governments and the Pope are beginning to assert control over AI development, while social and political resistance to data center expansion in the U.S. is creating potential conflict over who shapes the technology's future.
Why it matters
Gemini Flash 3.5, Mythos, open-closed balance, America's open-source surge, emerging power struggles and more.
