Nvidia gave its first-ever year-ahead forecast—a 70% growth bombshell meant to silence AI bubble critics and ‘circular financing’ doomsayers

Nvidia just did something it has never done before: it gave investors a look one fiscal year ahead, and the number was absurdly large. The company said revenue should grow 70% next year, while demand for its AI chips is running 100%. After hours, the stock moved up more than 4%.

The forecast lands well above what Wall Street had been working with. Analysts were modeling about $570 billion for fiscal 2028, which would have meant 44% growth from fiscal 2027. Nvidia’s guidance implies something closer to $690 billion to $700 billion instead — more than $100 billion above that consensus. Jensen Huang said the point was to give everyone the same information. He also noted that Nvidia has never guided a year ahead before.

The company’s latest quarter was already a monster. Revenue hit $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and topped analyst estimates of $92.2 billion. Earnings came in at $2.22 a share on a non-GAAP basis, above expectations, and Colette Kress guided the next quarter to $108 billion, right in the buyside whisper range.

Huang said demand is coming from the usual cloud giants, but also from sovereign AI, neoclouds, AI startups, and enterprises. He said the non-hyperscale side now makes up about half of Nvidia’s business and is growing 100% a year. He also argued that agentic AI burns through far more compute than a human user — about 15 to 100 times more, depending on the task — which helps explain why the appetite for chips keeps widening.

That appetite comes with a messier side. Nvidia has been accused of helping create circular financing by investing in parts of the AI ecosystem it also sells to, and Kress pushed back on that directly. She said the company sees those deals differently, called the risk limited, and pointed to a huge pool of support and guarantees tied to AI infrastructure, including $108.5 billion in maximum gross guarantee exposure. Markets have not exactly loved that setup, and Nvidia knows it.

There was one small sour note: gross margin guidance for the third quarter came in at 74%, down from 75% in the second quarter. Kress also said supply and capacity commitments jumped from $119 billion to $279 billion as memory costs rose. Even so, the broader message from the call was plain: demand is roaring, supply is the ceiling, and Nvidia thinks it can keep printing numbers that make analysts look timid.