My bets on open models, mid-2026
Interconnects Nathan Lambert
Open-weight model developers are keeping pace with closed labs on established benchmarks, but closed models maintain advantages in robustness and real-world usefulness that aren't well captured by current metrics. The author expects Chinese open-weight labs to face funding difficulties later in 2026, with capability trajectory changes visible 3-9 months after funding constraints emerge. The long-term balance between open and closed models will be determined primarily by economics and business incentives rather than pure technical capability, with open models increasingly adopted for repetitive automation tasks while closed labs maintain leadership in interactive knowledge work.
Why it matters
What I expect to come next and why, focused on the open-closed gap.
