🔮 For AI adopters, success and failure look identical — at first
Exponential View Nathan Warren
Companies have invested billions in AI over the past two years without delivering measurable economic returns, creating pressure on executives to justify their AI strategies. JPMorgan disclosed $1-1.5 billion in AI value, one of the rare companies to name a specific number, while Barclays noted broad AI adoption has not yet lifted productivity. The article argues that successful technology adoptions follow a J-curve where learning costs precede returns, making early-stage AI rollouts appear expensive before they become profitable, and distinguishes between companies that stop experimenting after initial success versus those that fail to learn from their projects.
Why it matters
Modelling the AI J-curve
