AI productivity tools are overhyped and overfunded. Investors should look elsewhere

Fortune · 15 ● 2 sources

The article argues that AI productivity tools are overhyped and that most are likely to fail despite triple-digit evaluations over the last 12 months. It estimates about $1TR in net new AI ecosystem revenue was added since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, but says much of that revenue is risky and vulnerable to open-source, new chip entrants, and model-driven applications. As a result, it recommends shifting investment toward a smaller set of tools creating meaningful new value, especially autonomy-focused systems and AI for science and defense rather than standalone productivity apps.