Tech bulls are barely winning their fight against the oil bears

Markets woke up split. Asia mostly had the better morning, with South Korea’s KOSPI up 3.09% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.73%, while China’s CSI 300 fell 1.32%. Europe moved the other way. The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.18% in early trading and the FTSE 100 fell 0.77% before lunch, with energy-heavy economies getting a fresh reminder that oil still matters a lot when Brent is near $117 a barrel.

In the U.S., the mood was a little firmer. S&P 500 futures were up 0.07% after the index rose 0.7% on Friday. Nasdaq futures also edged higher. Tech names got some support from Anthropic’s IPO filing, which seems to have eased a bit of the worry that frontier AI labs and the businesses built around them might not be sustainable after all.

Meta was the awkward exception. Its shares fell nearly 2% after the company said it would offer $95 billion in new stock to fund its AI buildout. Investors did not exactly celebrate the dilution.

The market’s bigger tell, though, is that strong earnings are being pushed aside by nervous positioning. About 30% of the S&P 500 has reported so far, and Bank of America says 78% have beaten earnings-per-share expectations, a solid result by any normal measure. Still, investors keep acting like a bust is lurking just around the corner.

That caution shows up in the sentiment data. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s survey of 953 investors found 42% are bearish. Chris Larkin of E*TRADE/Morgan Stanley called out the stack of market and economic headwinds heading into year-end. Traders may be looking past decent numbers, but they are not doing it from a place of comfort.