Is Anthropic the IPO market’s last hope for 2026? The clock is ticking

The IPO market picked up another bruise this week. Kepuni Holdings pulled a planned Nasdaq listing on Monday, then Gravitics Holdings cut its deal size by 60% before its own IPO. In South Korea, Elice Group fell 32% on its first day, a rough debut that Dealogic says was the country’s worst ever for a company raising more than $100 million.

None of those deals is huge in the scale of 2026. But together they deepen a familiar problem: companies are getting skittish about what public investors will actually pay. Jay Ritter, who runs the University of Florida’s IPO Initiative, put it bluntly. The issue, he said, is often valuation. Some companies would rather walk away than accept a number that feels too low.

That’s why Anthropic keeps coming up as the market’s possible reset button. Renaissance Capital’s Matt Kennedy said a strong debut from the Claude maker would be a major win for the whole market. One longtime Anthropic investor told Fortune he expects the company to price at roughly $1.8 trillion, below its $2 trillion target, and sees a possible post-IPO value of as much as $2.4 trillion.

Those are eye-watering numbers, but the timing is what makes them matter. The Wall Street Journal reported a new draft prospectus showing an $80.7 billion net loss for the first six months of the year, even as revenue reached about $16.3 billion, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier. Anthropic has not said when it will file, though the Journal and Bloomberg have both reported it is preparing for a possible November IPO. Kennedy said a filing could come as soon as Friday.

And that matters because the calendar is closing fast. Midterm elections and the holiday season are coming, which could push other companies into early 2027. A successful Anthropic listing would not fix everything overnight, but Kennedy argues it could carry momentum into next year too. In a market this nervous, one giant deal can do more than a dozen small ones.