Could AI slow science?
AI Snake Oil Sayash Kapoor
Researchers argue that while AI leaders predict it will accelerate science, the technology may actually worsen scientific progress by increasing paper production without improving actual breakthrough discoveries. Scientific publication has grown exponentially with papers doubling every 12 years since 2000, yet metascience evidence shows the rate of disruptive discoveries has remained constant or declined, suggesting a disconnect between research volume and genuine progress. If AI companies and funders continue accelerating production without addressing the bottlenecks limiting breakthrough discoveries—such as information overload preventing scientists from identifying genuinely novel work—the slowdown in meaningful scientific progress will likely continue.
Why it matters
Confronting the production-progress paradox
