AI is killing 10,000-plus jobs per month and 9% of jobs are at risk, analysts say

AI is now showing up in the jobs data, and not in a flattering way. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen say the U.S. is losing more than 10,000 roles a month to AI-related pressure. That’s a real bleed, not a headline-grabbing one-off.

The pain is concentrated in the kinds of work that can be sliced up, standardized, and moved onto software. Accounting, advertising, office administration and legal services are among the sectors they say are slowly shrinking. Construction, by contrast, is gaining jobs because tech companies are rushing to build data centers.

Goldman Sachs sees the same pattern, just with a more cautious vocabulary. Joseph Briggs told clients that the loud public panic over AI job losses has eased, but labor data are still hinting at weaker hiring. Under Goldman’s baseline forecast for a 15% productivity lift from AI, about 9% of workers could be temporarily displaced during the transition.

That’s the part investors and workers keep circling around: displacement, not instant destruction. Goldman says AI could push out one in 11 workers, but it expects the layoffs to really bite in a recession. In other words, the technology is already changing demand for labor. The economic cycle may decide when the full bill comes due.