AI #176 Part 2: Plan B

Zvi (Don't Worry About the Vase) · 6 days ago

This is a newsletter digest covering AI policy, regulation, and alignment research, including commentary on the Trump administration's opposition to formal AI licensing in favor of ad hoc regulation, discussions of how long it would take superintelligent AI systems to build advanced technologies like Dyson spheres, and criticism of those underestimating current AI capabilities. The author argues that policymakers and industry figures must acknowledge existing AI capabilities (the 'AI pill'), anticipate general AI (the 'AGI pill'), and consider superintelligence risks (the 'ASI pill') to make sensible decisions. The piece suggests that claims models will commoditize are increasingly dubious given the growing gap between frontier and second-tier capabilities, and that frontier AI will likely remain valuable longer than many predict.