On issue after issue, Trump has given Xi Jinping a pass — even on reports China is helping Iran. 'I think he’s behaved reasonably well'

Donald Trump once campaigned on hard talk about China. Now he sounds almost warm about Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader he is set to host at a state dinner on Thursday. This month, Trump called Xi “a great gentleman” and said the two countries have a “very good relationship.”

That softer tone has held even when the subject gets uncomfortable. When reports emerged that China had given Iran satellite imagery, Trump waved it away. After accusing Beijing in 2020 of getting into U.S. voter files, he also sounded reluctant to hit back, saying China may be different now.

The shift matters because this is not just about manners. China is still pressing its advantage in manufacturing and moving deeper into artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, while Trump has weakened ties with allies that could have helped push back. He has mocked Emmanuel Macron, gone up and down on NATO, and picked a fight with Canada. The result, as one analyst put it, is that Trump is effectively helping Xi’s wedge strategy by doing the splitting himself.

Trump did try the blunter approach. He loaded up tariffs, and that ran into a wall. China leaned on its control of rare earths, the materials used in electronics, and forced a trade truce. Since then, Trump has leaned on ceremony instead of pressure: a May trip to Beijing, a helipad readied for Xi at the White House, and complaints that the ballroom won’t be finished in time.

There is still some symbolism Trump can point to. He and Xi are on track for reciprocal state visits, unlike Joe Biden, who met Xi three times only on the sidelines of summits. But the policy picture is murkier. China’s global trade surplus hit $1.2 trillion last year, and its low-cost electric cars are still squeezing Germany, Japan and South Korea. Thursday may end up producing a nicer relationship more than a real deal, which is a pretty expensive way to discover that charm is not strategy.