The AI Superforecasters Are Here
Astral Codex Ten
AI systems designed for forecasting, known as AI superforecasters, are now competitive with or slightly better than top human forecasters on prediction markets and financial tasks. One startup claimed to turn $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months, and Metaculus data shows scaffolded AI systems are roughly nine months ahead of base models, with human-AI parity expected around six months away. If AI forecasters match human experts in accessibility and cost while maintaining comparable accuracy, they could democratize access to sophisticated predictions currently available only through expensive expert consultants.
Why it matters
AI superforecasters are AIs modified to be good at forecasting through scaffolds that guide agents through long research processes. Several companies now claim to have AI superforecasters with incredible performance that are making crazy profits on prediction markets and beating the stock market.
