An early Anthropic backer predicts a $2.4 trillion IPO pop, topping SpaceX

Anthropic hasn’t filed its S-1 yet, but the waiting is already turning into a sport for the people who got in early. One long-time backer told Fortune he expects the company to price below its reported $2 trillion target and then jump hard once trading starts.

His number is blunt: about $1.8 trillion at pricing, then a trading value of $2.3 trillion to $2.4 trillion. He says that would reflect Anthropic’s real worth, not just a sugar high that fades after the debut. If that plays out, it would edge past SpaceX, which closed on its opening day at a market cap of $2.1 trillion and is now around $2.03 trillion.

The investor’s case for Anthropic is tied to how the company was built and who it sells to. He says he backed it early because it was less consumer-focused and more of an enterprise bet, and because Claude landed well. He also sees Anthropic as the top name in foundation models, which he argues gives it a real advantage in enterprise business.

That distinction matters. According to the source, Anthropic gets around 80% of its revenue from enterprise customers, while OpenAI is moving faster into that market and now gets about half its sales from the business side. The investor says the two companies keep leapfrogging each other on model power, but he views Anthropic as a little less chaotic.

There’s also a softer pitch here, and he doesn’t hide it. He says Anthropic has more soul, and that Dario Amodei is principled about the kind of company he wants to build. On profitability, he thinks Anthropic gets there before SpaceX, which he says is a much longer story to unfold.