AI existential risk probabilities are (still) too unreliable to inform policy
AI as Normal Technology Arvind Narayanan
Opinion — commentary, not a factual news event.
AI existential risk probabilities are being used in public discourse and policymaking, but the article argues they remain as unreliable as earlier estimates and lack rigorous, validated methods. The authors say the forecasts are not improved over 2024 and that policymakers face the need to justify the numbers, with no solid reference classes for AI extinction-style outcomes. As a result, the article calls for policymakers to treat p(doom) style probabilities as misleading for policy decisions rather than as dependable inputs.
Why it matters
How speculation gets laundered through pseudo-quantification