Does the UK’s liver transplant matching algorithm systematically exclude younger patients?
AI Snake Oil Arvind Narayanan
The UK's liver transplant matching algorithm systematically discriminates against younger patients by using a 5-year survival prediction window that underestimates their lifetime benefit from transplantation. A 2024 study in The Lancet confirmed the bias, with hepatologists reporting that patients below 45 years old cannot score high enough for priority regardless of illness severity. The algorithm's design flaw—predicting 5-year rather than lifetime survival outcomes—causes younger patients' calculated benefit to appear similar to older patients' despite their potential to gain decades more life from transplant.
Why it matters
Seemingly minor technical decisions can have life-or-death effects
